Which side was more interested in the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP dam?
The operation is beneficial to Russia, based on defensive logic. Thus, we can assume that the Russians caused this partial destruction. Apart from flooding Russian fortifications on the Left Bank of the Dnieper, I don't see the point in Kyiv because if Ukrainians can't cross the river, there's no point in it. The only drawback for Moscow is that this dam provides water to a canal that stretches to Crimea. This is highly detrimental to the economic life of this region, which was annexed in 2014.
Do the events of this Tuesday reflect the actual level of concern on the part of the Russians, who are still waiting for the start of a counterattack?
If the Russian army had acted differently to keep him from Zaporizhzhia to Kherson, it would have been better for him. Fundamental defensive structures were built along the Dnieper. I couldn't wait to see what a Ukrainian counterattack could offer in this area, but we'll never know. In short, if the Russians preferred the flood, it was only because they saw it as a real danger.
"It has been almost nine months since Ukraine expected this attack."
Despite the outrage it has caused, this dam being attacked is not a surprise ...
It has been almost nine months since Ukraine expected this. This is painful for Kyiv because it is necessary to mobilize troops for evacuation and rescue operations that can be deployed elsewhere. But they've been planning this for some time because the hypothesis of such an attack was influential.
Will Ukraine have to reconsider its plans when a counterattack is declared imminent?
Nobody knows what Ukrainians want to do. But what is certain is that the Russian army will be completely calm in this sector over the next few weeks, from Zaporizhzhia to Mariupol. Kyiv's interest is to create the appearance that its troops can attack everywhere to disperse the enemy's defences on the line as much as possible to break through a certain point. And here, the Ukrainian army is deprived of a chance.
This weekend, Volodymyr Zelensky announced that his country was ready to launch a counteroffensive. At the same time, a video was published in which Ukrainian soldiers asked for silence, putting their fingers to their mouths. He thus stopped all speculation on this topic in the social networks of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Isn't that contradictory?
No, it's just to increase the pressure on the opponent. The message is, "Be careful; you're going to get stuck." But we have to be prepared for such teasing. This is a game of communication. Russian soldiers know something significant will happen, but they must know what and where. It's very stressful for the guys on the front line. But also for the Russian General Staff.
The Belgorod border region in Russia has been the scene of destruction and strong pro-Ukrainian invasions for several days. Last year, Moscow raised the issue of a nuclear threat if an "existential threat" looms over the country...
Various Russian leaders have falsely used this threat. We make fun of the red lines of Western countries in Syria, but we can do the same with Putin. We supply F-16 fighters to Ukraine without any problems. The Russians, of course, are unhappy, but we understand that these nuclear threats no longer have a natural effect. Moscow's interest is to bet on Western fatigue until we freeze the conflict. If this happened, for example, right now, it would be a great success for him because he would double his territorial catch compared to 2014.
